The recovery of manned spaceflight from the vicissitudes of the Shuttle programme continued in 2008, though at a barely perceptible rate.

Hopefully the pace will pick up in 2009 and beyond.  Total man-days in space in 2008 come to 1,581.77, if my figures are accurate. This continues the recovery of the last few years, from a low of 794 in 2004, but does not yet challenge the record peak of 1746 man-days in the year 1997.

If the ISS partners can up the baseline ISS crew size from 3 to 6 this year as planned, this of itself will generate 2200 man-days in space per year, to which can be added extra time logged by visitors and independent Chinese flights. But with people already talking in terms of the ISS having a lifetime of only about a decade in its completed form, despite the massive investment that has gone into it, there remains a question about whether even such a modest level of activity is sustainable beyond about the year 2020.

In terms of seats to orbit, 2008 saw 37 people carried on 4 Shuttles, 2 Soyuz and one Shenzhou craft. This is again a recovery from the low in 2004 but some way below historical peaks -- 11 launches in 1985 with 63 astronaut seats to orbit in 9 Shuttles and 2 Soyuz.

It is interesting to note that 15 Shuttle flights were planned for the year 1986, and approximately 19 (!) for the year after that (see John Geenty, "Flights of fancy", Spaceflight, January 2005, p.26-32). Over 100 people would have flown to orbit per year. But in the event the nine Shuttle launches in 1985 remain the record launch activity for this or any other manned space transport system, and neither Orion-Ares nor Shenzhou-Long March nor a manned ATV-Ariane seem likely to challenge this record.

Surely the biggest issue in spaceflight in 2009 and over the next few years will be whether entrepreneurial NewSpace companies can establish themselves. Only they have the business model that can support the "routine" access to orbit which the Shuttle was once supposed to offer. Only then will we see the charts of human activity in space embark on a sustainable upward trend.

It is reported that Virgin Galactic's WhiteKnightTwo made a first successful test flight on 21 December, reaching an altitude of about 5 km, and that SpaceShipTwo should be ready for captive flights late in 2009.

Meanwhile the prospect of privately owned vehicles resupplying the ISS continues to firm up -- see Paul Rincon of BBC News, 30 Dec. 2008, "Private firms to haul ISS cargo", discussing the work of SpaceX (Falcon 9 rocket / Dragon capsule -- first demo flight scheduled for 2009) and Orbital Sciences Corp (Taurus 2 rocket / Cygnus capsule -- first demo flight scheduled for fourth quarter of 2010).

A scenario seems to be developing in which the private supply of cargo to the ISS, suborbital space tourism and orbital space tourism (continuing Space Adventures' run of clients to the ISS) together constitute the foot in the door for regular access to space on reusable vehicles owned by companies interested in expanding their markets.

Possible near-future wild-cards include Bigelow Aerospace expanding the orbital accommodation available, and Space Adventures or another operator embarking on private lunar flyby flights in an uprated Soyuz or Dragon capsule.

With these activities beginning to slowly develop the space tourism and manufacturing markets, they in their turn should eventually stimulate development of more efficient vehicles based on spaceplane rather than ballistic missile architectures.

It is very much to be hoped that British spaceplane entrepreneurs will be in a position to benefit from such a positive feedback, and that ESA and the BNSC will have the sense to help to nurture them for this breakthrough.

It is this process of public/private collaboration and diversification of markets away from the exclusive focus on government prestige and science -- and not ambitious and vulnerable official programmes to explore the Moon and Mars -- that will consolidate human passenger access to space and make it an integral part of the economy, repeating and vastly extending the revolution that has already taken place in robotic satellites for telecoms, Earth observation and satnav.

This will in turn make eventual access to the Moon and Mars more affordable, more broad-based and itself permanently sustainable.

We can only watch and wait -- and encourage officialdom at every opportunity to include the NewSpace sector in their plans.

Please visit Stephen Ashworth website too: http://www.astronist.demon.co.uk